德尔菲法在国家卫生镇效果评估指标体系中的应用  

Application of the Delphi Method in the Indicator System of Assessing National Healthy Town Construction

作　　者：罗庆[1] 丁震[1] 徐正龙[1] 樊福成[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心农村改水技术指导中心

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2013年第4期364-368,共5页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

摘　　要：目的建立一套国家卫生镇创建效果评估指标体系,并用此评估体系对两个国家卫生镇进行试点评估。方法采用Delphi法,综合指数法和秩和比法筛选指标,确定各级权重;采用TOPSIS法和层次分析法评价试点地区创建效果。结果两轮专家咨询问卷的积极系数分别为0.94、0.97,协调系数分别为0.161(χ2等于131.751,P小于0.05),0.317(χ2等于242.582,P小于0.05),两个国家卫生镇的综合评价指数分别为0.708,0.660。结论建立了一个包括3个一级指标、12个二级指标和37个三级指标的评价体系,此次咨询筛选出的指标符合卫生镇效果评估指标体系的需要。Objectives To build an indicator system of assessing national healthy town construction, and to evaluate two national healthy towns with the system. Methods Indicators were screened by Delphi method, comprehensive index method and weighted by rank-sum ratio （RSR） method; the construction of the two towns was evaluated by the technique for TOPSIS （Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution） method and AHP （analytic hierarchy process ） method. Results Positive coefficients of two expert counseling questionnaires were 0.94 and 0.97. Kendall coefficients were 0. 161 and 0. 317. Comprehensive evaluation indexes of two national healthy towns were 0. 708 and O. 660. Conclusions The indicator system of assessing healthy town construction included 3 first-stratum indicators, 12 second-stratum indicators and 37 third-stratum indicators, the screened indicators can be used in the evaluation of national healthy town construction.

关 键 词：卫生镇 创建效果 指标体系 德尔菲法 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]