舟山市沿海海平面上升预测和淹没分析  

Sea Level Rise Prediction and Submerging Analysis of Zhoushan Coastal Areas

作　　者：丁骏[1,2] 江海东 应岳 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江省海洋监测预报中心,浙江杭州310007 [3]舟山市海洋环境监测预报中心,浙江舟山316100

出　　处：《杭州师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第4期373-378,共6页Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：舟山市是我国唯一以群岛设置的地级市,是受海平面上升影响最直接的地区.采用3种数学统计分析方法来模拟和预测舟山市沿海海平面的上升速率和未来的上升值,然后通过情景设定未来的海平面上升值遇上百年一遇潮位,基于GIS技术分析了其最大可能的淹没范围.Zhoushan, the only prefecture-level city which sets up on group of islands in China, is the most severe area affected by sea level rise directly. This paper simulated and forecasted the rate and future value of sea-level rise in Zhoushan coastal areas with the analysis of three kinds of athematical statistical methods, and analyzed the submerged areas of maximum possibility based on GIS technology through the scenario of future sea level rise meeting the hundred years tide.

关 键 词：海平面上升 预测 随机动态 淹没分析 

分 类 号：P714[天文地球—海洋科学]