Projected Changes of Palmer Drought Severity Index under an RCP8.5 Scenario  

作　　者：ZHOU Tian-Jun HONG Tao 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2013年第5期273-278,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA0 5110301);Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean(201105019-3)

摘　　要：The potential change of drought measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index （PDSI） is projected by using a coupled climate system model under a Representative Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario.The PDSI changes calculated by two potential evapotranspiration algorithms are compared.The algorithm of Thomthwaite equation overestimates the impact of surface temperature on evaporation and leads to an unrealistic increasing of drought frequency.The PM algorithm based on the Penman-Monteith equation is physically reasonably and necessary for climate change projections.The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,Spectral Version 2 （FGOALS-s2） projects an increasing trend of drought during 2051-2100 in tropical and subtropical areas of North and South America,North Africa,South Europe,Southeast Asia,and the Australian continent.Both the moderate drought （PDSI ＜-2） and extreme drought （PDSI ＜-4） areas show statistically significant increasing trends under an RCP8.5 scenario.The uncertainty in the model projection is also discussed.The potential change of drought measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)is projected by using a coupled climate system model under a Representative Pathway 8.5(RCP8.5)scenario.The PDSI changes calculated by two potential evapotranspiration algorithms are compared.The algorithm of Thornthwaite equation overestimates the impact of surface temperature on evaporation and leads to an unrealistic increasing of drought frequency.The PM algorithm based on the Penman-Monteith equation is physically reasonably and necessary for climate change projections.The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,Spectral Version 2(FGOALS-s2)projects an increasing trend of drought during 2051–2100 in tropical and subtropical areas of North and South America,North Africa,South Europe,Southeast Asia,and the Australian continent.Both the moderate drought(PDSI<–2)and extreme drought(PDSI<–4)areas show statistically significant increasing trends under an RCP8.5 scenario.The uncertainty in the model projection is also discussed.

关 键 词：palmer drought severity index PROJECTION RCP8.5 scenario climate model 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]