我国对主要新兴经济体出口的影响因素研究——基于面板数据SUR模型的实证分析  

Influencing Factors of China's Exports to Major Emerging Economies:An Empirical Study Based on SUR Model with Panel Data

作　　者：邵建春[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江外国语学院国际工商管理学院,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2013年第10期4-14,共11页International Economics and Trade Research

摘　　要：文章选取巴西、印度、俄罗斯和南非作为主要新兴经济体，构建贸易引力模型，在对1995～2011年相关面板数据进行单位根检验和协整检验的基础上．运用面板数据SUR模型就我国对这些主要新兴经济体出口的具体影响因素进行了实证研究。结果发现，经济发展阶段相似、地理位置近以及双边较快的经济增速有利于我国对新兴经济体的出口，但人民币实际有效汇率升值却对其有消极影响；值得注意的是，我国出口商品档次目前尚能满足低收入新兴经济体的进口需求．但却不适应较高收入新兴经济体的消费偏好。此外，运输成本对出口的影响要视双边贸易的竞争性或互补性而定．This paper selects Brazil, India, Russia and South Africa as the major emerging economies, then constructs a trade gravity model, and after the unit root and co-integration test of the relevant 1995～2011 panel data, applies a SUR model with panel data to empirically analyze the factors influencing China＇s exports to the major emerging economies. Its findings are as follows： similar economic development stages, close geographic locations and their higher economic growth rates are conducive to China＇s exports to the major emerging economies while the appreciation of the RMB＇s real effective exchange rate negatively affects China＇s exports to those countries; it is notable that China＇s current exports so far can meet the needs of the low income NEEs but are hard to satisfy the consumers＇ preference of the higher NEEs; additionally, the effect of the transportation cost on China＇s exports to NEEs hinges on the bilateral complementary or competitive relationships.

关 键 词：新兴经济体 贸易引力模型 面板数据SUR模型 

分 类 号：F112[经济管理—国际贸易]