美国生产性服务业影响因素的技术层面分析——基于VAR模型的实证检验  

Technical Analysis of Influencing Factors of Producer Service in the U.S.:An Empirical Test Based on VAR Model

作　　者：冯晓玲[1] 张建[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2013年第10期24-37,83,共15页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：辽宁省社科基金项目(L12BGJ005);大连海事大学创新团队阶段性成果(3132013329);中央高校基本科研业务费(3132013072)

摘　　要：在经济全球化背景下,生产性服务业正成为发达国家的主导产业和经济发展的新增长点,美国的生产性服务业在优化产业结构、提升城市竞争力和综合国力等方面发挥了重要作用。文章综合运用协整分析、VAR模型及脉冲响应和方差分解方法,实证分析了人力资本、研发投入、人均可支配收入、城市化水平、制造业中间需求和生产性服务业FDI对美国生产性服务业的影响。结果表明,人均可支配收入对美国生产性服务业的影响程度最大,其后依次为制造业中间需求、人力资本、研发投入和城市化水平,生产性服务业FDI的影响程度最小。Producer service is becoming the leading industry of developed countries and a new growth point of economic development under the background of economic globalization. Producer service in the U.S. plays an important role in optimizing the industrial structure and enhancing urban competitiveness and overall national strength. The paper empirically analyzes the effect of human capital, R＆D investment, per capita disposable income, the level of urbanization, manufacturing intermediate demand and producer service FDI on the producer service in the United States by using co-integration analysis, VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition method. The empirical results indicate that per capita disposable income causes the greatest influence on the producer service in the U.S., followed by manufacturing intermediate demand, human capital, R＆D investment and the level of urbanization, whereas the producer service FDI is minimal.

关 键 词：美国生产性服务业 影响因素 VAR模型 技术层面 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]