基于系统动力学的房产税政策仿真研究  

Simulation Research of Real Estate Tax Policy Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：于博[1] 邓晓盈[1] 刘沛[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学土木工程学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《价值工程》2013年第29期124-126,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：为了科学、有效地分析房产税对房地产市场的调控作用,提高房地产政策的合理性与前瞻性,有必要建立商品住宅系统政策仿真模型,深入分析住宅系统内各因素之间的反馈关系。基于建立的住宅仿真模型,实现对房产税政策的模拟实验,得出房产税政策对住宅需求市场以及住宅价格的影响程度。本文以昆明市房地产市场作为研究样本,利用仿真系统进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,房产税对住宅增量有抑制作用,但短期内对住宅价格影响程度有限。In order to analyze the effects of real estate taxes on the real estate market scientifically and effectively, and improve the rationality and foresight of real estate policy, it＇s necessary to establish the system dynamics model of real estate, analyze the relationship between the factors. Based on ＂residential simulation model, it realizes the simulation test of real estate tax policy. In this study, it takes the real estate market in Kunming as the research sample, uses simulation system for the empirical analysis. The empirical results show that the residential property tax increase was inhibited, but the short-term impact on housing prices is limited.

关 键 词：房地产税 系统动力学 仿真模拟 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]