A Research on Demands Forecasting and Personnel Training of Tourism Talents A Case Study of Zhejiang Province  

作　　者：YE Jing ZHU Liang-liang 

机构地区：[1]Ningbo Dahongying University, Ningbo, China [2]The University of Nottingham, Ningbo, China

出　　处：《Sino-US English Teaching》2013年第9期700-706,共7页中美英语教学（英文版）

摘　　要：By analyzing the recent 15 years＇ statistical data of Zhejiang tourism human resources, this paper analyzes the status of Zhejiang tourism talents. ARIMA （Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average） model is a method of time series prediction. This paper predicts the trends of the next three years＇ demands of Zhejiang tourism talents based on ARIMA model in order to promote the tourism in Zhejiang Province. According to the demands forecasting, the number of the employees required by the hotels is 10 times of travel agencies in 2015. At last, some solutions and suggestions are provided such as strengthening the talents training establishing tourism talents mobility mechanism and improving tourism talents excitation mechanism

关 键 词：ARIMA （Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average） tourism talents demands forecasting 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理] F272.92[经济管理—产业经济]