基于马尔科夫模型的武功县土地利用/覆被动态变化研究  

Dynamic Changes of Land Use/Cover Based on Markov Model in Wugong County,Shaanxi Province

作　　者：朱萌[1] 马孝义[1] 刘雪娇[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学机械与电子工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2013年第5期64-68,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家十二五"863"项目(2011AA100509);国家十二五科技支撑项目(2011BAD25B03);国家十二五科技支撑项目(2012BAD08B01)

摘　　要：基于对武功县2006年、2009年两期Lansat 5-TM遥感影像解译获得的土地利用/覆被图,求得该区土地利用类型面积转移概率矩阵。应用马尔科夫模型对武功县未来12a土地利用动态变化趋势进行模拟分析和预测。结果表明:引入模型效应系数检验该模型,模型效应系数值为99.99%,用该模型预测土地利用动态变化是可靠的;人类活动是武功县土地利用/覆被变化的主要驱动力;武功县未来土地利用的变化趋势是农业用地逐年减少,其中耕地面积和菜地面积分别减少5.74%,0.74%;而建设用地和交通用地则逐年增加,分别增加6.29%,0.57%;水域和特殊用地面积变化不大。研究结果明晰了农用地和建设用地之间的矛盾及其发展趋势,可为区域土地利用规划管理提供相关科学依据。Based on the interpretation for land use/cover map from Lansat 5-TM remote sensing images of Wugong County, Shaanxi Province in 2006 and 2009, transfer probability matrix of the areas were calculated. Then the land use dynamic change trend of Wugong Country in the next 12 years was simulated and predicted by using Markov model. The results indicated that the value of W is 99.99% by introducing model effect co- efficient to test this model, proving that using this model to predict the land use dynamic change is reliable. Activity is the main cause to change in land cover pattern in Wugong County. The results show that Wugong County land use change trend of agricultural land was decreasing year by year, among this, the cultivated land area and vege- table field area were reduced by 5.74% and 0. 74%. But the construction land and traffic land increased, the area in- creased by 6.29% and 0.57%; while the waters and special land area change is unconspicuous. This result indicates that the contradiction between agricultural land and construction land and its development trend is clear, and it is meaningful to serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management.

关 键 词：遥感 土地利用 覆被 马尔科夫模型 武功县 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]