农村劳动力转移影响粮食产量了吗?——基于中国主产区面板数据的实证分析  

Does Migration of Rural Labor Affects the Grain Yield?——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Main Production District in China

作　　者：程名望[1,2] 张帅[1] 潘烜[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院 [2]罗格斯大学

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2013年第10期79-85,共7页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"农村劳动力转移对粮食安全的影响机理及发展模式研究"(71373179);国家自然科学基金项目"基于民工荒视角的农民工城镇就业行为及其治理模式研究"(71173156);教育部人文社科基金项目"城镇化推进中我国农村剩余劳动力转移趋势及长效机制研究"(10YJC790032)

摘　　要：粮食安全是关系到中国经济平稳发展、社会安定的重要问题，农村劳动力转移是中国实现工业化、城市化和农业现代化的必由之路。农村劳动力转移与粮食安全“一致”抑或“冲突”，是亟待回答的重要问题。本文采用中国主产区11个省份2001～2010年的面板数据，基于扩展的柯布一道格拉斯生产函数，实证分析了中国农村劳动力转移和粮食生产的关系。研究发现：中国农村劳动力转移和粮食稳定增产存在一致性趋势，农村劳动力转移并没有对中国粮食主产区的粮食生产产生显著影响。保持农村劳动力持续稳定转移，通过要素替代或要素对流，增加农业资本投入，保持耕地面积，促进农业技术进步，将有利于实现中国的粮食安全。Food safety is the ness. And migration of rural labor princi is the issue regarding economic steady growth and social stability and harmonious prerequisite to realize industrialization, urbanization and modernization of agrieul-ture in China. Whether migration of rural labor and food safety contradict or consist is a serious public issue to be solved. The paper focuses on the main producing area of grain, using the panel data between 2001 and 2010 of the main producing area of grain, empirically analyses the relationship of food safety and migration of rural labor with agricultural capital input, cultivated area and agricultural technology progress serving as control variables. The result tells that migration of rural labor would not affect grain production significantly, which implies agriculture involution still exist in the process of grain pro duetion in China. Based on what have found, some suggestions are put forward concerning how to guarantee food safety and accelerate the pace of transfer of labor force.

关 键 词：农村劳动力转移 粮食产量 粮食主产区 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F304.6[经济管理—产业经济]