我国货币供给与物价波动的动态关联研究  

Positive Research on the Price Fluctuations in China by Climate Index

作　　者：王金明[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学商学院

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2013年第9期39-45,共7页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"基于合成指数对我国通货膨胀影响因素及传导机制的动态分析"(12YJC790184);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"调整型经济增长对我国居民可持续性消费影响的实证研究"(13JJD790011)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文基于景气分析的思想,利用动态因子模型构建了综合反映我国物价波动态势的价格指数,发现我国价格波动存在非对称特征,并且,波动幅度在金融危机冲击下增大。通过计算货币供给增速与价格指数在滚动区间相关系数的变化,表明货币供给增速领先于价格波动的时间不稳定,但领先性一直十分显著。因此,为防止出现新一轮通货膨胀并保证我国经济健康增长,控制货币供给适度的增长速度是必要的政策选择。This paper constructs price index, according to the idea of climate analysis, to reflect the features of price fluctuations with dynamic factor model. We found that there exists asymmetric feature in price fluctuations and shocks from financial crisis lead to more violent fluctuations. Through calculating the rolling correlation coefficient between the monetary supply price index, this paper argues that the leading time of monetary the 1 ately eading property is significant. Therefore, the monetary supply to avoid high inflation and keep our economy stable. growth rate and supply to price index varies while growth rate should be kept moderately to avoid high inflation and keep our economy stable.

关 键 词：物价波动 景气指数 货币供给 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]