含未穿透裂纹结构断裂失效概率计算的重要抽样法  

IMPORTANCE SAMPLING METHOD FOR FRACTURE FAILURE PROBABILITY CALCULATION OF STRUCTURE WITH PART-THROUGH CRACK

作　　者：孙鹏飞[1] 袁杰红[1] 林泽锦[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学指挥军官基础教育学院,长沙410072

出　　处：《机械强度》2013年第5期684-689,共6页Journal of Mechanical Strength

摘　　要：将线弹簧模型法与重要抽样法相结合,建立含未穿透裂纹结构断裂失效概率的计算方法,考虑材料特性、外载荷和裂纹尺寸等参数的不确定性,以含未穿透裂纹平板为例进行计算,求得结构的失效概率。对比分析Monte Carlo法、响应面法和重要抽样法的计算效率与精度。结果表明,所提方法是合理可靠的,而且计算量小、精度高、通用性强,适合工程实际应用。A method for failure probability calculation of structure with part-through crack was established by combining line-spring model and importance sampling method. The plate with part-through crack was analyzed with this method in consideration of the uncertainty of parameters such as material character, external load and crack size. The failure probability was obtained. Calculation efficiency and accuracy were compared between Monte Carlo method, response surface method and importance sampling method. The results show that the present method is rationality and reliability, and is also efficient, accurate and universal for engineering application.

关 键 词：未穿透裂纹 线弹簧模型 重要抽样法 失效概率 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]