基于AERMOD及减排政策的昆明市工业区SO_2情景模拟  

SO_2 scenario simulation of Kunming industrial park based on AERMOD modeling system and emission reduction policy

作　　者：马洁云[1] 易红宏[1,2] 唐晓龙[1,2] 普丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学环境科学与工程学院,云南昆明650500 [2]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2013年第10期1884-1890,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：云南省环境保护厅环保专项(KKK0201022137)

摘　　要：以昆明市工业区为试点,将2009年作为基准年,2015年作为情景年,利用Aermod模型系统以及相关数据对工业区内SO2环境浓度进行预测.模拟情景的建立基于"十二五"工业源减排规划.研究发现工业源减排措施将对区域SO2浓度有显著影响,降幅最高可达13%.2015年不同模拟时段的SO2等浓度下分布面积均较2009年有明显减小,高浓度地区个数变少,这种现象也出现在污染源非集中地区.研究结果表明利用模型预测可有效分析减排政策对工业区内环境质量状况的影响,有助于建立减排响应机制.Industrial park of Kunming was exampled to do scenarios simulation of SO2. The year of 2009 was chosen to be base year, and 2015 was set to be scene year. Aermod modeling system was employed to do SO2 simulation and the policy scene was based on the 12th Five years plan. From this analysis, reduction of industrial emission will affect the regional air quality of SO2 and the highest ambient concentration of SOz in modeling area will significantly reduced, the most reduction is up to 13%. And also the pollution area will decrease in 2015 in different time interval. The number of high pollution spots will become less and this phenomenon will also appeared in decentralized area of emission source. These results can offer a great proof of efficiently analyze the affection from emission control to air quality change by air quality model.

关 键 词：AERMOD模型系统 SO2 昆明 区域大气污染 空气质量 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]