不确定环境下物流技术创新的决策机制——基于制造业与物流业联动的视角  

The Decision Mechanism of Logistics Technological Innovation under Uncertainty——On the View of the Interactive Development of the Manufacturing and Logistics Industry

作　　者：张红波[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2013年第10期40-46,共7页China Business and Market

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目"不确定环境下我国物流企业成长力的培育与路径选择研究"(项目编号:10YJA630205)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：物流业与制造业产业关联度极高,物流技术创新不仅关系到物流企业的成长与物流服务效率的提高,也深刻影响着制造业的发展和产业升级。文章基于制造业与物流业联动视角,运用实物期权方法,通过构建分析模型,研究不确定环境下物流技术创新的决策机理,并对影响物流技术创新的关键因素进行分析。研究结果表明,制造业与物流业的联动发展,能扩大制造业对物流服务的需求规模,更容易满足物流技术创新对市场需求门槛值的要求,可降低物流技术创新的投资成本与环境不确定性的影响,进而可提高物流技术创新的成功率和新技术的赢利能力。因而,构建良好的制造业与物流业的联动关系,是实现制造业与物流业快速发展的重要途径。The manufacturing and logistics industry associated with a very high degree of association; logistics technology innovation is not only related to the development of logistics enterprises and logistics service efficiency, but also deeply influences the development of manufacturing industry and industry upgrade. Based on the view of the interactive development of the manufacturing and logistics industry, with the help of real option method and the building of analysis model, the logistics technology innovation decision mechanism is studied and the key factors that influence the logistics technology innovation is analyzed. The results show that： the interactive development of the manufacturing and logistics industry could expand the manufacturing industry＇s demand scale for logistics services, easily meet the logistics technology innovation＇ s requirements for market demand threshold, could reduce the cost of logistics technology innovation investment and the impact of uncertainty, and also could improve the success rate of logistics technology innovation and the new technology＇s profitability. Therefore, building a better interactive development between manufacturing and logistics industry is an important way for fast development of the manufacturing and the logistics industry.

关 键 词：环境不确定性 物流技术创新 制造业与物流业联动 实物期权 

分 类 号：F252.24[经济管理—国民经济]