气候变化背景下湖北省水稻高温热害变化规律研究  

DYNAMIC VARIATIONS OF HEAT INJURY ON RICE IN HUBEI PROVINCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

作　　者：陈升孛 刘安国[2] 张亚杰[3] 吴坤悌 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象服务中心,海南海口570203 [2]华中农业大学植物科学技术学院,湖北武汉430070 [3]海南省气候中心,海南海口570203

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2013年第2期51-56,共6页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(编号:CCSF-09-14;CCSF-10-04)

摘　　要：利用历年气象资料,运用数理统计方法,分析了湖北省1951—2010年水稻高温热害的动态变化,探讨了气候变化背景下高温热害的演变趋势与规律。结果表明,鄂东部、江汉平原部分地区水稻高温热害发生趋于频繁,且除西南部地区外的湖北省其他地区水稻高温热害最大概率出现的时间均有明显的提前,甚至每10 a提前1 d以上。最后,利用ArcGIS对湖北省的水稻高温热害变化趋势和风险程度进行了区划。Based on the 1951-2010 highest temperature data in Hubei province, the dynamic variations of heat injury are studied by using mathematical statistics method. The results show that the heat injury events on rice occur more frequently in many regions of Hubei province. The occurrence time of maximal heat injury probability presents a significant advance in most area except southwestern Hubei, ahead more than 1 day per 10 years. According to the previous results, the spatial distribution of dynamic variation of heat injury on rice and the degree of risk are zoned by using the ArcGIS software.

关 键 词：气候变化 水稻 高温热害 风险累积值 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]