盐岩能源地下储备库群风险综合评价与管理体系  

Salt rock underground energy storage integrated risk assessment and management system

作　　者：张宁[1] 张强勇[2] 李媛[3] 马林建[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军理工大学爆炸冲击防灾减灾国家重点实验室,南京210007 [2]山东大学岩土与结构工程研究中心,济南250061 [3]中铁十六局集团有限公司,北京100018

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2013年第10期80-90,共11页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划("973"计划)资助项目(2009CB724607);国家自然科学基金委员会创新研究群体科学基金项目(51021001)

摘　　要：利用盐岩洞穴进行能源地下储备是我国能源储备的重点战略部署方向。我国盐岩地层埋深浅,呈层状分布,且夹层较多,地质条件相对复杂,增加储库灾变的可能性,因此建立一套盐岩能源地下储备库群风险综合评价和管理体系尤显重要。根据盐岩地下储库群灾变事故的统计结果,获取了盐岩地下储库的主要风险因子,对库群风险进行了辨识。建立了盐岩地下库群风险评价方法和风险分级标准,通过数值模拟方法对失效概率进行了核算,评价了金坛盐岩库群风险等级,并通过模型试验对结果进行了验证,开发了基于计算机网络技术的盐岩地下库群风险信息管理与评估系统,建立了盐岩能源地下储备库群风险综合评价和管理体系。The underground energy storage utilizing salt rock caverns is the national key strategic develop-ment of energy reserves. Salt mines in China are characterized as shallow burial, stratified distribution and multi-ple interlayers, that increasing the possibility of storage disasters. Therefore, establishing a synthetic evaluation system for the risk of underground salt rock energy storage is of a great necessity. Based on the statistical analysis of salt rock underground storage risk events, the main risk factors have been attained and the risk of underground storage has been identified. Accordingly, the underground storage risk assessment method and criterion have been set, the risk probability is calculated by the numerical simulation to assess the risk level of Jintan salt rock storage, and a model test has been conducted to verify the result, Underground Salt Rock Gas Storage Risk Infor-mation Management and Assessment has been developed via computer network technology, and salt rock under-ground energy storage risk integrated assessment and management system has been established.

关 键 词：风险综合评价和管理体系 盐岩 能源地下储备库群 

分 类 号：TU452[建筑科学—岩土工程]