基于多级可拓评价法的列车运行控制系统运营安全风险评价  

Operation Safety Risk Evaluation of Train Control System Based on Multilevel Extensible Evaluation Method

作　　者：张亚东[1] 郭进[1] 戴贤春[2] 邹波 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学信息科学与技术学院,四川成都610031 [2]中国铁道科学研究院铁道科学技术研究发展中心,北京100081 [3]广州铁路(集团)公司安全监察室,广东广州510088

出　　处：《中国铁道科学》2013年第5期114-119,共6页China Railway Science

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2012X003-A;2012X007-D;2011X025-C);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2010XS19)

摘　　要：为定量评价列车运行控制系统的运营安全风险水平,构建包括列控设备风险、操作风险、维修风险、环境风险、安全管理风险和更新改造风险的列车运行控制系统运营安全风险评价指标体系,并基于模糊层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重,建立列车运行控制系统运营安全风险多级可拓评价模型。以国内某高速铁路CTCS-3级列车运行控制系统的运营安全风险定量评价为例,验证了该模型的合理性、可行性和适用性。In order to evaluate the operation safety risk of train control system quantitatively, the operation safety risk evaluation index system of train control system was established from equipment risk, operation risk, maintenance risk, environment risk, safety management risk and technical renovation risk. The weight for each risk evaluation index was determined using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the operation safety risk evaluation model of train control system was established based on multilevel ex- tensive evaluation method. With the model, the operation safety risk of CTCS-3 level train control system of a certain high-speed railway in China was evaluated, and the rationality, feasibility and applicability of the model were verified.

关 键 词：列车运行控制系统 运营安全风险 评价指标体系 多级可拓评价法 

分 类 号：U284.482[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制]