转型期电力供应系统应用基本人树三步逐层建模法建模及其功能研究  

Modeling and functional study of power supply system in the transferring period based on the three-step stepwise modeling method of rate fundamental in-tree

作　　者：沈小龙[1] 贾仁安[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学系统工程研究所,南昌330031

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第10期2555-2566,共12页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71261018;71171208)

摘　　要：厂网分离以来,煤电价未及时联动,电力供求失衡的电荒现象多次出现,给经济发展带来极大影响.该文应用供应链产能管理理念和系统动力学方法,在原有流率基本入树模型建模成果的基础上,针对建立符合实际因果链枝的技术难点,概括提出三步建模法,通过建立流率的关联二部分图与逐层反延伸因果链图,及两图结合,建立了转型期电力供应链产能管理系统的前期流率基本入树模型,进行了前期流率基本入树模型功能研究,建立了等阶的流图模型.且基于前期流率基本入树模型进行了煤价大幅上涨而电价不及时联动形成的因果链剖析专题分析,为基于反馈环分析的转型期电荒原因剖析及其三步对策生成打下基础.Since the plant-grid＇s separation, the on-grid prices cannot be adjusted timely with the coal price, the recurring electrical scarcity has produced huge influence on economic development. Based on the idea of supply chain capacity management and the original results about the rate fundamental in- tree modeling, the research found the three-step modeling method of earlier rate fundamental in-tree to solve the difficulty about building the cause ＆ effect chain. Focused on the rate variable, the research constructed two-part associated diagram and reverse-extend diagram to build an electrical supply chain capacity management dynamics model and an equal flowgraph model. The research studies the function of the earlier rate fundamental in-tree model, then case studies the causation chain while the coal prices have risen sharply and the on-grid prices cannot be adjusted timely. This paper has set the stage for the feedback loop analysis method to study the reason of the recurring electrical scarcity, and the three-step counterplan method to produce the tactics for lessening the danger of electrical scarcity.

关 键 词：转型期 供应链产能管理 电荒 三步逐层建模法 前期流率基本入树模型 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]