基于灰色预测模型的核事故医学应急装备使用保障费用分析  

Usage and Guarantee Expenses Analysis of Nuclear Accident Medical Emergency Equipment Base on Gray Prediction Model

作　　者：任鑫[1] 周碧松[2] 孔衍[3] 张建国[1] 杨翊方[1] 陈杰[1] 陈小虎[2] 张凯[1] 马丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军医学研究所防护医学研究室,上海200433 [2]国防大学军事后勤与科技装备教研部,北京100091 [3]海军蚌埠士官学校机械系,安徽蚌埠233012

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第19期173-179,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：总后科研基金(AWS10B026);海军医学研究所基金(10HY22)

摘　　要：建立了核事故医学应急装备使用保障费用分析模型,且通过GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对核事故医学应急装备使用保障费用进行预测分析,解决了传统方法因数据缺乏而预测精度不足的问题。并用实际数据对预测模型进行了精度验证,结果表明该方法具有很好的预测精度,可用于核事故医学应急装备使用保障费用的预测和估算,为相关部门经费分配提供决策支持,对加强核事故医学应急装备全系统、全寿命的经济技术可行性论证,提高决策水平、计划的科学性和经费整体使用效益都具有重要意义.This paper builds up the usage and guarantee expenses analysis model of nuclear accident medical emergency equipment and solves the problem of prediction accuracy shortage because of data lack with traditional method by analyzing the usage and guarantee expenses analysis model of nuclear accident medical emergency equipment with the use of GM（1, 1） gray prediction model.The accuracy verification of prediction model is carried out with the actual data and the results show that the method has a good prediction accuracy, being well used for the prediction and evaluation of nuclear accident medical emergency equipment expenses.It provides the decision support for the related section to assign budget and has a great effect on strengthening economic technique possibility provement of nuclear accident medical emergency equipment with whole system and whole life, raising decision level, the plan science and whole use advantages of budget.

关 键 词：核事故医学应急 灰色预测 装备使用保障费用 GM（1 1）模型 

分 类 号：TL73[核科学技术—辐射防护及环境保护] R82[医药卫生—临床医学]