产量递减阶段开发指标的预测方法  

Methods for Forecasting Development Index in Production Decline Stage

作　　者：陈元千[1] 李剑[1] 雷占祥[1] 李云波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《新疆石油地质》2013年第5期545-547,496,共3页Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

摘　　要：产量递减阶段是油田开发的主要阶段,预测产量递减阶段的开发指标是油田管理工作的重要任务。预测方法包括产量递减法、预测模型法、水驱曲线法和油藏数值模拟法等,其中产量递减法是最为有效的首选方法。该方法与储集类型和驱动类型无关,只要进入递减阶段,即可使用。利用最为常用的指数递减原理,提出了在油田产量递减阶段预测油田年产量、总累计产量、可采储量、剩余可采储量和储采比等指标的方法。通过实例应用表明,该方法是实用、有效的。The production decline stage is a main stage of oilfield development, and forecasting oilfield development index in this stage is an important task for oilfield management. The main forecast methods include production decline method, forecast model method, water drive curve method and reservoir numerical simulation method, of which the production decline method is the most effective method. The method is independent of reservoir types and drive types, it can be used when an oilfield enters into the production decline stage. Based on the commonly used exponential decline principle, this paper proposed the methods for forecasting production, total cumulative production, total recoverable reserves, remaining recoverable reserves and reserve-production ratio of an oilfield in this decline stage. The case study shows that these methods are practical and effective.

关 键 词：油田 预测 开发指标 产量递减 可采储量 剩余可采储量 储采比 

分 类 号：TE311[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]