“十二五”全国万元工业增加值用水量目标可达性分析  

Feasibility of goal of water consumption per ten thousand Yuan industrial added value in China during national 12^(th) Five-Year Planning period

作　　者：高晓冬[1] 耿雷华[1] 刘恒[1] 姜蓓蕾[1] 童坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利经济》2013年第5期1-5,75,共5页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201020)

摘　　要：利用1997—2010年14年全国及31个省级行政区万元工业增加值用水量系列资料,采用数学曲线拟合法建立数学表达式,预测2015年的全国万元工业增加值用水量为59.8 m3。采用数学曲线拟合法建立数学表达式或采用年递减率来预测2015年各省的万元工业增加值用水量,并预测2015年全国工业用水量,采用缩减系数分析计算各省工业增加值和全国工业增加值,计算全国万元工业增加值用水量为57.7 m3。表明"十二五冶期间全国万元工业增加值用水量目标是可以实现的。同时论文建立的数学表达式能为全国正在进行的用水效率控制红线关键考核指标的分解和考核提供参考依据。Using the series of water consumption data per ten thousand Yuan industrial added value in China and 31provinces from 1997 to 2010, a mathematical expression is established to predicate the water consumption Wcountry per ten thousand Yuan industrial added value in China in 2015by means of the mathematical curve fitting method, and the calculated value of Wcountry is 59. 8 m3. The mathematical expression based on the mathematical curve fitting method or the annual decline rate method is adopted to predicate the water consumption Wprovince per ten thousand Yuan industrial added value of each province and the industrial water consumption in China in 2015. The industrial added values Iprovince in each province and Icountryin China are predicted by use of the reduction coefficient method. The calculated valued of Wcountry is 57. 7 m3. A conclusion is drawn that the goal of water consumption Wcountry per ten thousand Yuan industrial added value in China during the national 12thFive-Year Planning period is feasible. The proposed mathematical expression may provide a reference for the current work of decomposing and assessing index of water use efficiency redline in China.

关 键 词：万元工业增加值用水量 可达性 趋势法 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]