代表性浓度路径情景下宁夏草地动态演变的预测与模拟  

Forecast and Simulation of the Grassland Dynamic Evolution under the RCPs Scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

作　　者：姜群鸥[1] 战金艳[2] 赵春红[3,4] 张巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100038 [2]北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [4]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第10期110-118,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(编号:2010CB950904);北京林业大学新进教师科研启动基金项目(编号:BLX2012044);中国环境与发展国际合作委员会"中国西部环境与发展战略及政策研究"课题

摘　　要：西部地区是我国乃至亚洲的重要生态屏障。因此,遏制由于长期过牧导致的草地退化,保障西部地区生态系统功能,促进西部地区畜牧业和经济社会可持续发展具有重要的研究意义。本研究以宁夏回族自治区作为典型区,收集了宁夏土地利用数据、自然环境数据和社会经济数据,创建了联立方程组模型,研究了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对草地过牧与退牧过程的驱动机制。驱动分析结果显示对于草地过牧过程,气候因素是草地面积退化的重要影响因素,人口压力也在这一过程中起着决定性作用,交通条件较发达的地区,人类活动较频繁,对于草地生态系统破坏也相对较严重;而宁夏退牧过程的主要驱动因素之一是区域原有生态环境,经济要素也是决定退牧意愿的重要影响因素,国家政策是退牧过程的外在推动因素。基于宁夏土地利用规划和IPCC公布的RCPs情景数据,设计估算了规划情景和气候情景下的土地利用需求,然后基于草地动态演变的驱动机理,本文应用土地系统动态(DLS)模拟系统预测了2010-2030年在RCPs情景和规划情景下研究区域草地面积和草地质量的空间分布特征和变化趋势。研究结果表明,规划情景下,研究区域草地面积随时间呈逐渐减少的态势,AIM气候模式下草地面积的变化态势与规划情景相似,但是减少的幅度比规划情景小,而MESSAGE气候模式情景下草地面积变化呈先减少后有小幅增加的态势。三种情景下,草地面积减少的区域主要集中在低密度草区,部分是在中密度草区。总的来看,无论是哪种情景,未来2010-2030年过牧与退牧这种相逆的现象不断减弱,但是并没有消失。这些研究结论将为西部干旱区生态环境保护、草地资源开发利用与保护、畜牧业发展规划提供重要的决策参考信息。Western China plays an important role as the ecological barrier of China and even Asia.It is of great significance to study how to restrain the grassland degradation caused by the long-term overgrazing to guaranteeing the ecosystem functions of western China and promoting the sustainable development of the local animal husbandry and social economy in western China.With the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as the study area,the authors collected the land use data,natural environment data and social-economic data of the study area,and then analyzed the influence of natural environment conditions and socioeconomic factors on the process of grassland overgrazing and returning grazing land to grassland by constructing the simultaneous equation model.The results show that the climate factors played an important role in influencing the grassland degradation,and the population pressure also had impacts on this process to some extent.The intense human activities in the region with good traffic conditionsled toserious damage for the grassland ecosystem.As for the process of returning the grassland to other kinds of land in the study area,the original regional ecological environment is one of the main driving factors,and the economic factors also have significant effects on the will of returning grassland to other kinds of land,while the national policy is the major external motivating factor.This study estimated the land use demand under the planning scenario and climate scenario on the basis of the land use planning and RCPs scenario data published by IPCC.Then the authors simulated the changing trend of the grassland area in the study area during 2010-2030 under the climate scenario of RCPs and planning scenario with the dynamic land system software （DLS） based on the driving mechanism of dynamics of grassland.The results indicate that the local grassland will gradually decrease as the time going under the planning scenario,and it shows a similar changing trend under the AIM climate scenario,but with smaller decreasing

关 键 词：气候情景 RCPs 草地 动态变化 预测 

分 类 号：N1[自然科学总论]