我国基本养老金隐性债务变化趋势分析——基于改进精算测算模型的实证研究  

China's Basic Implicit Pension Debt Trends Analysis——Based on the Improved Actuarial Calculation Model Empirical Study

作　　者：张迎斌[1] 刘志新[1] 柏满迎[1] 罗淇耀[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2013年第5期40-49,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071009)

摘　　要：隐性债务问题是养老保险制度改革过程中需要面对的重要问题。本文在前人精算测算模型基础上,指出其在数据选取、参数设定、最新制度应用等方面的不足,从三个方面扩展了精算测算研究:结合最新法规对测算模型进行完善,考虑了未来工资增长率与历史工资增长率的区别,修改了养老金调整系数;在测算模型中考虑了过渡性养老金与基础性养老金领取特点的区别;利用最新、最合理的数据进行实证分析。通过研究本文发现,保持合理的工资增长率水平与利率水平可以保证隐性负债规模实际可控,确保隐性负债占财政收入和GDP比例在安全线以内。为此,本文建议:维持温和的工资增长,保证隐性债务不过高的同时兼顾社会福利的提高;尽量提高社会养老金运作的投资收益率,但同时应当权衡提高收益率的成本与其降低的隐性债务之间的利弊。The implicit debt problems is the important issue of the pension system reform process. The drawbacks of previous studies, that in the data selection, parameter setting, latest institutional applica-tions are pointed out in this paper. Then implicit debt study is extended from three aspects： improving cal-culation model combined with the latest regulations, modifying pension adjustment factor, considering the difference between the wage growth rate and the historical rate of wage growth. Further,considercing the transitional pension and fundamental pension differences in the calculation model, empirical analysis of the latest and the most reasonable data is carried out. The results show that keeping a reasonable level of sev-eral key factors can ensure the actual controlled the size of the hidden liabilities and the total fiscal revenue and GDP ratio within safe limits. To this end, this paper proposes to maintain moderate wage growth, con- trol of a reasonable level of interest rates, take a variety of channels to increase the social pool fund bal-ance. In the end, several suggestions are made in this paper：maintaining moderate wage growth meanwhile banlancing implicit debt and socia welfare;increasing rate of return on pension insurace investment mean-while balancing advantages and disadvantages of yield rate and implicit debt.

关 键 词：隐性债务 精算测算模型 养老保险制度 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]