垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期决策模型  

A Decision-Making Model of Concession Period for Refuse-Incineration Power Generation BOT Projects

作　　者：宋金波[1] 宋丹荣[1] 谭崇梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2013年第5期86-93,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70702033;71072107;71272091);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT11RW307);辽宁省高校优秀人才支持计划(LJQ2013011)

摘　　要：随着BOT模式在我国垃圾焚烧发电项目中的广泛应用,特许期决策问题得到了政府、项目公司和社会公众的普遍关注。通过对垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期影响因素的分析,建立了垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期的决策模型,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对项目各年的净现值进行模拟,以实现不同内部收益率水平的累积概率作为目标函数,求解出项目的合理特许期,并分析了垃圾热值和处理量两个关键参数变动对特许期决策的影响,以期为政府和项目公司运作垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目提供决策参考。BOT mode has been widely used in country. Concession period as a key parameter refuse-incineration power generation projects all over the in BOT projects has captured the attention of government, companies and publics. Under the circumstances, influencing factors of concession period in refuse-inciner-ation power generation BOT projects is analyzed, and a concession period decision-making model is pro- posed in this paper. Based on Monte-Carlo simulation method, NPV of every year is calculated. By adop- ting cumulative probability under different levels of IRR as the objective function, the reasonable conces- sion period is determined. In addition, to provide a reference for the government and companies, the im-pact of heat value and handling capacity on the concession period is also analyzed in this paper.

关 键 词：BOT 垃圾焚烧发电 特许期 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：F294[经济管理—国民经济]