系统受力的因果链出树传递效应分类分析法研究——对中国农村新医改五大对策实施的传递效应的实证分析  

Study on Classification and Analysis Method about Force Transfer Effect by Causal Chain Out-trees in System——Empirical Analysis on Force Transfer Effect of Five Countermeasures in New Rural Health Care System Reform of China

作　　者：贾清萍[1] 贾仁安[2] 王翠霞[3] 涂国平[2] 徐兵[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学公共管理学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学系统工程研究所,江西南昌330031 [3]江西财经大学信息管理学院,江西南昌330032

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2013年第5期172-183,共12页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71261018;70961001;71171208;71163032;70961006);中国博士后基金(201009481186);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(S01222);江西省教育科学"十二五"规划课题(10DZ033)

摘　　要：社会经济系统发展的不同阶段不断受到新的对策、政策、规划、项目作用力的作用,为实现高效发展,迫切需要一种新的系统科学方法,有效揭示系统发展的受力产生的直接效应、部门间延迟效应及整体延迟效应。本文将系统动力学因果链理论及图论的树理论结合,新建立系统受力不考虑反馈作用的因果链出树,进行因果链分类,分析不同因果链出树中的直接作用枝、部门延迟传递效应枝、平衡发展效果枝,揭示出各受力的系统发展的直接效应、部门间延迟效应、持续发展的整体延迟效应。并以当前中国农村新医改五大对策实施效应实例对此方法进行了有效应用,提出了对策实施的直接效应、延迟效应及整体效应分析的新思路和技术。这种方法将对仿真分析有重要作用。The different stages of socio-economic systems development are of new countermeasures, policy, planning and project. In order to achieve gent to need a new system scientific methods to effectively reveal the direct constantly effected by efficient development, effect genera system development, the indirect delayed effects between departments and the overall the force ted by the delayed ef it is ur- force of fect. In this paper,based on the causal chain theory in system dynamics and tree theory in graph theory,new sys- tematic force causal chain extremely out-trees which without considering the feedback effect are built, and causal chains out-trees are classified into direct effect tree branches, delayed effect tree branches among de-partments and balanced development effect tree branches. They can effectively reveal direct effect, delay effect among departments and overall effect of sustained development in system. The method is applied in the new rural health care system reform in China to reveal implementation effect of five health care reform countermeasures. A new analysis ideas and technology to analyze direct effect, delayed effect and overall effect of countermeasures are created. The method is also helpful for simulation effect analysis.

关 键 词：因果链出树 延迟传递效应 系统动力学 医疗体制改革 对策实施效应 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]