国债融资对居民消费影响的动态效应研究  

Analysis of Dynamic Effects of Debt Financing on Household Consumption

作　　者：王爱群[1] 董秀良[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学管理学院,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第9期141-150,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划项目(10YJA790041);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373100);吉林大学基本科研业务费资助项目(2011ZZ021);吉林大学985平台项目

摘　　要：国债融资对居民消费的影响既是宏观经济学领域长期争论的话题,同时也是关系到财政政策有效性的核心问题。本文利用1998至2012年的季度数据,采用非线性的马尔可夫区制转移误差修正模型重新检验了国债融资与居民消费的区制状态、转移概率和区制相关性,研究发现,在整个样本期内国债融资对居民消费总体上具有拉动作用,但具体不同的时间段国债融资对居民消费的影响并不一致,2008年末以前的大部分时间里主要表现为拉动效应,但2008年之后对居民消费的影响则不显著。该结论表明,当基础设施领域瓶颈解决之后,应适时调整支出结构,由基础设施转向民生保障才能有效地拉动内需。The impact of debt financing on household consumption has been an ongoing debated topic in macroeconomics, and it also matters to the effectiveness of fiscal policy. By using quarterly data from 1998 to 2012 and the nonlinear Markov regime switching error-correction model, this paper re-examines the regime state, transition probability and district system of debt financing and household consumption. We find that the debt financing generally promotes the household consumption in the whole sample period, but the effects of debt financing on household consumption in different periods are inconsistent. Specifically, most of the time before the end of 2008 it presents as a pulling-effect, and the effect is insignificant after 2008. The conclusion shows that the expenditure structure should be adjusted timely after solving the infrastructure bottlenecks, and only when fiscal expenditure turns to ensuring peoples ~ livelihood from infrastructure investment can it stimulates domestic demand effectively.

关 键 词：国债融资 居民消费 李嘉图等价 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学]