中国外汇储备的安全评估与预警指标体系研究  

A Study on the Safety Assessment and Early Warning Indicator System for China's Foreign Exchange Reserves

作　　者：陶士贵[1] 吉莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学商学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第9期159-168,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金(10YJAGJW015);南京师范大学商学院创新人才培养基金(12CX_007G);江苏省社会科学基金项目(09CJS002)

摘　　要：美国债务危机的逐步恶化引发中国外汇储备安全隐患,国家外汇储备安全监管的重要性日益凸显。本文根据国际主流的金融危机预警模型KLR的基本原理,选择中国宏观经济运行、外汇储备状况、美国债务现状三大类20个影响中国外汇储备安全的预警指标构建理论体系框架,并根据2002年-2011年的月度数据分别测算各个指标的危机发生概率,赋值确定指标权重,对中国外汇储备发生危机的概率提供了测算方法,首次建立了可用于中国外汇储备安全评估的预警指标体系。The gradual deterioration of the U. S. debt crisis causes security risks of the Chinese foreign exchange reserves, which highlights the growing importance of the safety supervision of the country＇s reserves. In this paper, according to the basic principles of the mainstream international financial crisis early - warning model KLR, 20 early warning indicators, selected from China＇s macro - economy, situation of foreign exchange reserves and U.S. debt status, which affect the safety of China＇s foreign exchange reserves, are used to build a theoretical framework. Moreover, in line with the 2002 -2011 the monthly dates, the crisis occurrence probability of various indicators are estimated and are used to determine the weights of the indicators, providing a calculating method of the crisis occurrence probability of China＇s foreign exchange reserves. This paper, for the first time, establishes the early warning indicator system which can be used for safety assessment of China＇s foreign exchange reserves.

关 键 词：外汇储备安全 KLR分析法 危机预警 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]