探索应用常规工作数据估计MSM人群HIV新发感染率  

Exploration on estimating new HIV incidence among men who have sex with men with routine data

作　　者：闫红梅[1] 王开利[1] 高聪[1] 于兰[1] 惠珊[1] 张婕[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2013年第9期640-643,647,共5页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

基　　金：中美艾滋病防治合作项目;中国全球基金项目(CHN-506-G06-H)~~

摘　　要：目的探索应用常规工作数据建立简便、实用的数学模型,估计男男性行为人群（MSM）艾滋病病毒（HIV）新发感染率。方法假设某小年龄组MSM人群的HIV新发感染率与整体MSM人群相同,以15~49岁年龄组的MSM人群规模、HIV/AIDS病例现存人数、HIV感染率、小年龄组当年新发现HIV感染者人数（CD4淋巴细胞〉200/μL）,横断面调查小年龄组样本在15~49岁年龄组样本中的构成等作为参数建立模型,并进行适用性评估。结果模型估计2006-2012年哈尔滨市MSM人群的HIV新发感染率分别为0.3%、0.8%、0.4%、0.9%、1.3%、1.7%、3.1%,呈线性上升趋势（P=0.000）,相应年度的新发感染率支持年度间的HIV感染率变化。新报告HIV/AIDS病例数量及经同性性传播构成的变化、15~20岁感染者数量及特点的变化、梅毒感染率、无保护肛交比例、≥2个性伴比例水平,另外两种HIV新发感染率估计法的估计结果等均支持此判断。结论研究设计的HIV新发感染率估计模型,应用常规工作数据,估计值有参考价值,值得有需求地区探索使用。Objective To build up an easy and practical mathematical model for estimating new human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)incidence among men who have sex with men(MSM)with routine data.Methods Suppose that the HIV incidence of MSM young age group is the same as the whole MSM population,model was built up with parameters,such as size estimation in 15-49years old MSM,number of HIV positive cases,HIV prevalence,number of new HIV infection existing in young-age group(CD4 >200/μL),and the proportion of young-age cases in 15-49year-old cases from cross-sectional survey and tested with applicability evaluation.Results The model estimated that the HIV incidence among MSM population in Harbin were 0.3%,0.8%,0.4%,0.9%,1.3%,1.7%and 3.1%from 2006to 2012,with significant liner up tendency(P=0.000),and the annual new HIV incidence supported the change of the HIV infection rate during the years.The number of new reported HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)cases and the proportion changes of homosexual transmission,the number and characteristic changes of infected cases among 15-20years old group,the prevalence of syphilis,the proportion of unprotected anal sex,the proportion of having sex with 2and more partners,as well as the results of other two estimation methods for new HIV incidence supported this judgment.Conclusions This estimation model of new HIV incidence can be built up by using routine data and has reference value,it is recommended to apply by the regions with demands.

关 键 词：艾滋病病毒 男男性行为人群 数学模型 新发感染 

分 类 号：R373.9[医药卫生—病原生物学]