强震预报风险评估模型及应用研究  

The Risk Assessment Model of Strong Earthquake Prediction and Is Application

作　　者：黄腾浪[1,2,3] 黄元敏[1,2,3] 黄定华[1,2,3] 胡秀敏[1,2,3] 何霆[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]广东省地震局,广东广州510070 [2]中国地震局地震监测与减灾技术重点实验室,广东广州510070 [3]广东省地震预警与重大工程安全诊断重点实验室(筹),广东广州510070

出　　处：《华南地震》2013年第3期22-28,共7页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：强震预报是一项风险决策,在发布前采取定性定量的方法对其风险进行评估,根据评估结果为政府决策提供科学的依据,减少地震灾害可能引起的损失。从人口疏散、地震应急备灾、社会企业停产、社会秩序维护等方面归纳了地震预报可能带来的损失,构建了计算模型,并算了阳江市设定6.0级地震、盈江5.8级地震、丽江7.0级地震的预报造成损失,对比地震实际损失值。计算结果显示:预报损失评估模型可为政府决策提供参考,指出政府根据地震预报信息进行风险决策时,要考虑目标区的经济发展水平。It is a risk decision to predict strong earhquakes. If the risk is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods and the scientific basis according to the assessment is provided for the government decision making before announcing, then the possible loss caused by earthquake can be reduced. We sum up the possible losses caused by earthquake prediction from aspects of people evacuation, disaster response and preparedness, stopping production of social enterprises and maintenance of social order. A calculation model is constructed and the losses of predicting the given M6.0 Yangjiang, M5.8 Yingjiang and MT.0 Lijiang earthquakes are calculated in comparison with the real earthquake losses. The results show that the assessment model for loss of prediction could provide reference for government decision making, and the level of economic development of the target area should be considered when the government makes a risk decision according to the earthquake prediction information.

关 键 词：强震预报 风险评估 模型 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]