基于投入视角的黄淮海平原农业碳排放与经济发展脱钩研究  

Decoupling Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emission and Economic Development From an Input Perspective: A Case Study of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

作　　者：李立[1] 周灿[2] 李二玲[2] 李小建[2] 

机构地区：[1]爱尔兰国立考克大学生物地学与环境科学学院 [2]河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封475001

出　　处：《生态与农村环境学报》2013年第5期551-558,共8页Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41071082)

摘　　要：农业增长对资源依赖的变化趋势以及农业发展与环境的互动关系日益引起学术界的关注。运用脱钩理论,以2000—2005和2005—2010年为时间尺度,以县域为空间尺度,探讨黄淮海平原农业碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系,揭示两者脱钩发展的时间和空间演变趋势及转移特征,并尝试分析脱钩的内在机理。结果表明:(1)脱钩类型的数量结构和空间格局均发生明显变化,黄淮海平原农业正处于由资源依赖向技术依赖的过渡时期。2000—2005年农业碳排放与经济增长以强复钩和扩张性复钩为主,脱钩空间格局较为分散;2005—2010年以强脱钩和弱脱钩为主,脱钩区域呈现空间集聚态势;若考虑因技术进步带来的碳排放系数变化因素,脱钩趋势将会更加明显。造成这种空间格局的原因主要是经济增长与环境的关系较为复杂,经济发展、技术进步和制度创新等因素通过互动机制共同作用于农业生产经营主体。(2)脱钩类型的转换呈跳跃性,转换方式以强复钩、扩张性复钩转换为强脱钩、弱脱钩为主,且脱钩状态不稳定,持续脱钩难度较大。脱钩状况受到经济效应、技术效应和政策效应等因素的共同作用,3者作用的两面性是持续脱钩难的重要原因。The trend of the change in dependence of agricultural growth on resources and the interaction between agricultural development and environment change have attracted more and more attention from researchers the world over.Based on the theory of decoupling,data of a county as a whole during the two time spans from 2000 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2010,were analyzed to determine decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emission and economic development in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,to reveal trends of the spatio-temporal variation of the decoupling development of the two and characteristics of its transfer and to explore inner mechanisms for decoupling.Results show that the type of decoupling has changed significantly in quantitative structure and spatial pattern,and the agricultural industry in the Huang-huai-hai Plain is right in the process of evolving from resource-dependence to technology-dependence.During the period of 2000-2005,agriculture carbon emissions and economic development was dominated with strong recoupling and expansive recoupling,and decoupling was rather dispersive in spatial pattern.However,the period of 2005-2010 was dominated with strong decoupling and weak decoupling,and the decoupling zone displayed a trend of spatial agglomeration.If the affecting factors of carbon emission coefficient brought about by technological advancement are taken into account,the trend of decoupling would be more significant.The cause of forming this spatial pattern is the complicated relationship between economic development and environment.Factors,like economic development,technical advancement,institutional innovation,etc.acted jointly on agricultural production and operation organizations through interactive mechanism.Transformation of decoupling types went like skipping,predominantly from strong recoupling and expansive recoupling to strong decoupling and weak decoupling,and moreover,the state of decoupling was unstable and it was very hard to keep on decoupling.The state of decoupling was subjected to th

关 键 词：农业碳排放 经济发展 脱钩 时空特征 黄淮海平原 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]