住宅价格波动对相关产业的影响  

The Effect of Housing Price Fluctuations on Correlative Industries

作　　者：高波[1] 任若恩[1] 郑海涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《广义虚拟经济研究》2013年第3期75-83,共9页Research on the Generalized Virtual Economy

基　　金：广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目[项目编号:GX2010-1001(Z)];国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71171009;71031001;70901003;71241015);北京市哲学社会科学规划项目(项目编号:11JGC102);中央高校基本科研业务费(项目编号:YWF-13-A02)

摘　　要：住宅市场是广义虚拟经济的重要载体,是连接实体经济和虚拟经济的主要纽带。本文结合投入产出表和住宅产业,具体阐述广义虚拟经济的核算方法,并且利用情景分析研究住宅价格波动对产业经济的影响。实证结果表明:住宅市场直接影响住宅产业,间接影响非金属矿物制品业等关联产业;住宅价格波动主要影响房地产业和金融业等部门,而且这种影响是非对称的。在商品住宅实施限购时,应通过设计财富标志等方式吸引更多产业参与保障房项目。Housing market is an important carrier of generalized virtual economy,and a main bond to link real economy and virtual economy.This paper combines input-out analysis and housing industry,concretely elaborates the measurement methodology of generalized virtual economy,and applies scenario analysis to researchtheeffectofhousespricefluctuationonindustrialeconomy.Empiricalresultsshowhousingmarket directly affects housing industry,indirectly affects manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products and other correlative industries,and housing price fluctuations mainly shock real estate industry and financial intermediation industry,and generate asymmetric effect on industrial economy.When commercial houses are confined to be bought,ensuring houses project should be encouraged to attract more industries by designing wealth identification and other means.

关 键 词：广义虚拟经济 住宅产业 投入产出分析 情景分析 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]