房地产投资与制造业:促进效应还是挤出效应——基于非参数逐点回归的实证分析  

Real Estate Investment and Manufacturing:Promoting Effect or Crowding-out Effect——Based on Non-parametric Pointwise Regression

作　　者：李畅[1] 谢家智[1] 吴超[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2013年第5期39-48,共10页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(12AGL008);教育部规划项目(12YJA790149);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(SWU1309324)

摘　　要：基于中国1999—2011年31个省的面板数据，分别运用参数方法和非参数逐点回归方法实证检验房地产投资对制造业动态影响的结果表明，在全国范围内，房地产投资促进制造业的发展，但促进效应表现为“倒U型”且逐渐趋于“临界值”；房地产投资的影响具有显著的地区差异和产业差异。因此，需要抑制房地产市场的过度繁荣以防止出现大规模对制造业的挤出效应，通过改善制造业外部投融资环境和加强内部转型升级促使制造业回归实体经济。By adopting 31 provincial panel data from 1999 to 2011 ,the dynamic effects of the real estate investment to manufacturing are tested empirically by using the method of parametric empirical test and non-parametric pointwise regression. The results show that： （1） The impact of nationwide real estate investment to manufacturing is still promoting, while the effect performs a＂inverted U＂ shape and gets more and more close to the＂ threshold＂;（2） The impacts of real estate investment have significant regional differences and industry differences. Based on the conclusions, this paper argues that it＇ s necessary to curb the excessive boom of the real estate market to prevent a large scale of crowding -out effects on manufacturing, and promote manufacturing returning to real economy by improving the external environment of investment and financing, and strengthening the internal power of transformation and upgrading.

关 键 词：房地产投资 制造业 非参数逐点回归 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]