我国地方政府债务问题研究——基于财政风险视角下的动态可持续性分析  

Study on the Local Government Debt in China——Dynamic Sustainable Analysis Based on the Perspective of Financial Risks

作　　者：睢党臣[1] 李盼[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,西安710062

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2013年第5期17-25,共9页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：伴随着欧债危机、美国"财政悬崖"的升级与蔓延,地方政府债务规模激增、潜在风险较大等问题已成为中国经济稳步增长进程中不可忽略的因素。基于财政风险视角,研究在道德风险驱使下地方与中央政府间的博弈关系以及地方债务风险沿着由低到高的行政链条层层转化的传导路径。从债务期限结构出发,将当期财政收支与长期的成本、收益效应等纳入动态可持续性分析框架,以此评估当期地方债的最大可持续规模。通过实证分析发现,作为首个偿债高峰的2011年,其当期举债规模已超出其可持续范围,而且"新债偿还旧债"现象严重,潜在违约风险不容忽视。With the upgrading and spread America, the sharply increase of debt scale of of European debt crisis and the ＂financial cliff＂ of local government and potential risks have become the factors that cannot be ignored in the process of China＇s steady economic growth. Based on the perspective of financial risks, the paper studies the game between local and central government driven by moral hazard and the transmission path of local government debt risk which transforms from low to high administrative chains. From the point of debt maturity structure, the authors take current fiscal revenue and expenditure, long -term cost and income effect into the dynamic sus- tainable analysis framework to estimate the largest sustainable scale of local debt. Empirical analy- sis finds out that as the high- tide period to repay debt, the current debt scale has surpassed its sustainable scope. Besides, the phenomenon of ＂using new debt to repay old debt＂ is very seri- ous, so the potential default risk cannot be ignored.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 财政风险 可持续性 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]