近50a河套地区东部≥10℃积温的演变特征及成因分析  

Analysis on the Variation of ≥10 ℃ Accumulated Temperature and Its Formation Causes in the Eastern Hetao Area in Recent 50 Years

作　　者：李艳春[1,2] 杨建玲[2] 苏占胜 李欣润[3] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象台,宁夏银川750002 [2]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [3]南京信息工程大学滨江学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《干旱气象》2013年第3期511-516,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家公益性行业专项(GYHY201306027);国家自然科学基金项目(41075069;41065005);宁夏自然基金项目(NZ12277)共同资助

摘　　要：利用河套地区东部宁夏22个气象台站4～10月逐日平均气温资料，统计分析了该区域≥10℃积温的时空演变及初日、终日的变化特征，采用复Morlet小波分析方法和Mann—Kendall突变检测方法，揭示了河套地区东部不同区域≥10℃积温的周期及突变特征，并初步探讨了演变成因。结果表明：近50a河套地区东部≥10℃的积温均呈增加趋势，初终日间隔明显延长；≥10℃积温在1997年出现由少到多的突变，在周期上存在3a和9a左右的长周期，主要原因是气候变暖前后大气环流在1997年前后出现了明显的长周期调整。1997年前，500hPa高度场上中高纬度地区，特别是巴尔喀什湖附近易形成低槽，有利于极地冷空气南下影响河套地区东部，造成气温偏低，≥10℃的积温偏小；1997年后，500hPa环流场发生了显著变化，中高纬度地区经向环流减弱，纬向环流增强，不利于槽区的形成和发展，极地南下冷空气活动次数减少，下游大范围区域内的气温升高，≥10℃积温增加。Abstract：By using daily mean air temperature data of 22 meteorological observation stations located in the eastern Hetao area from A- pril to October, the temporal and spatial evolution of ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature and its beginning and ending date were statisti- cally analyzed. Then, the cycle and abrupt change of ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature were revealed by Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann - Kendall test, respectively. Combined the atmospheric circulation fields before and after climate shift, the reasons leading to the changes were also primarily discussed via contrastive analysis. The resuhs show that the ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature in the eastern Hetao area gradually reduced from north to south. The ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature of the whole area had been increasing during the past 50 years, especially in recent 10 years the increasing rate with 76.2 ℃/10 a was faster and the rate of increase of irrigation district in northern was the highest, while the mountain area in southern was the lowest. With climate warming, the beginning date of ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature was earlier, yet the ending date was later, so its interval has obviously prolonged, especially in the latest 10 years there was 7 days prolonging averaged in Ningxia. The≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature of three regions of Ningxia hap- pened abrupt change, the whole area and that in the irrigation district of the north and the mountain area of the south appeared in 1997 while the arid region of the middle in 1994. There were about 3 a,8 -9 a and 13 a cycles during 1961 - 1990, among which the 3 a period was relatively stronger and became the strongest in the 1990s. After the 1990s, there was a period of 9 a with its signal becom- ing more and more strong especially in the 2000s. The main reasons causing increasing trend and prolonging duration of the I〉 10 ℃ accumulated temperature were the significant ad- justment of atmospheric circulation before and after climate warming. Before climate warming, the

关 键 词：河套地区东部 10℃积温 演变特征 成因分析 

分 类 号：P468.02[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]