河北省森林火险预报模式的改进及应用  

Improvement and Application of Forest Fire - danger Forecast Model in Hebei Province

作　　者：付桂琴[1,2] 张文宗[3,2] 赵春雷[3,2] 张金满 郭蕊 

机构地区：[1]河北省气象服务中心,河北石家庄050021 [2]河北省气象与生态环境实验室,河北石家庄050021 [3]河北省气象科学研究所,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《干旱气象》2013年第3期579-583,601,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：中国科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目:京津冀森林火灾遥感监测与精细化火险等级预报预警推广应用(2011GB24160003)资助

摘　　要：采用数理统计的方法,增加了MODIS卫星遥感监测的土壤湿度和热源点预报因子,对河北省气象局原有的森林火险预报模式进行了改进,针对不同区域分别建立了森林火险预报模式,并对2012年河北省森林火灾实际发生情况进行了分析和应用效果检验。结果表明,2012年防火期,实况出现火灾,改进的火险模式预报森林火险气象等级5级为预报完全正确比率达66.3%;预报火险气象等级为4级(高度火险)及以上的正确率达83.1%;预报火险气象等级为3级(中度火险)及以上的正确率达98.8%;在所有的预报样本中,森林火险气象等级预报5级,但实况没有出现火灾的空报率为6.8%。检验结果显示,改进后的森林火险预报模式的应用效果更接近实际情况。The forecast model of forest fire - danger developed by Hebei Provincial Meteorological Bureau in 2003 has been well applied in forecasting forest fire in Hebei Province for years. However, some problems still existed about the outputs of the model when they were compared with the meteorological observation data. With the improvement of service requirements and the application of informa- tion monitored by remote sensing, the model was needed to be improved and perfected. This paper addresses the improvement by adding more forecast factors including soil moisture and heat source information monitored by MODIS satellite to the model. Firstly, by using mathematical statistics method, the forecasting models of forest fire were built separately for the north forest and the southern Taihang mountains forest of Heibei Province. Then, the forest fires occurred from January to May and from November to December of 2012 in Hebei were simulated by the improved and original forecast models of forest fire - danger, respectively. Finally, combined with observations, the outputs obtained with the improved and original models were compared and analyzed. The results are as follows： The original model exaggerated wildly the level of fire - danger compared with the the improved model ; The probability of the fire - danger with the level 4 or above obtained with the original model accounted for 41.4%, which was much more than that of the improved model （ 15.0% ）. The forecasting precision obtained from the improved model was 66.3% at the level 5 and 83.1% at the level 4 or above, and 98.6% at the level 3 or above. In all samples, the rate of false alarm at the level 5 was only 6.8%. Consequently,the improved model has a good application effect on forecasting forest fire.

关 键 词：森林火险预报模式 改进和应用 效果检验 河北省 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]