全球消费品召回与中国消费品召回的数量关系解析  

Relationship between recall of world's consumer products and China's consumer products

作　　者：谢秋慧[1] 于文佳[1] 卫碧文[1] 陆维民[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海出入境检验检疫局,上海200135

出　　处：《上海纺织科技》2013年第10期1-3,10,共4页Shanghai Textile Science & Technology

摘　　要：将2005年1月～ 2012年7月共91个月的欧盟、美国和加拿大月度中国制造消费品召回数量之和作为全球中国制造消费品月度召回数量,采用计量经济学加权回归模型,定量解析与全球月度总召回数量的关系.研究结果表明,两者之间存在线性相关性,相关系数R2统计量为0.9966,全球月度消费品召回总数中约63％为中国制造产品数量,其中美国、欧盟和加拿大月度消费品召回总数中分别约62.2％、62.4％和63.8％为中国制造产品.这表明,以欧美等发达国家为代表市场的国际上中国制造消费品召回数量占召回总数的六成以上,并呈现一定的惯性,中国制造消费品的安全水平需要提高.In this paper, a model called ＂ Weight Regression and Forecasting among Econometrics＂ is applied to evaluate the relationship between the number of recalled China＇ s consumer products exported to EU, USA and Canada during 2005.1 -2012.7 and the number of global recalled products in EU, USA and Canada. Result shows that a linear relationship between the two does exist with R-squared being O. 9966. In this model, 63% of the amount of monthly global consumer products recall is from the amount of monthly global made-in-china consumer products recall and 62.2%, 62.4% and 63.8% of the amount of monthly USA, EU and Canada consumer products are from made-in-china consumer products recall respectively. Our research indicates more than 60% of global consumer products recall, with inertia effect, is from China＇ s consumer products recall , thus the safety of China＇ s consumer products needs to improve continously.

关 键 词：贸易 消费品 召回 回归分析 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济] F224