基于系统动力学的碳捕捉与封存实施方案评价研究  

Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Implementation Scheme based on System Dynamic

作　　者：王众[1] 匡建超[1] 庞河清[2] 霍志磊[3] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学管理科学学院,四川成都610059 [2]中国石化西南油气分公司博士后科研工作站,四川成都610041 [3]成都理工大学核技术与自动化工程学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2013年第11期137-143,共7页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目(11YJAZH043);四川矿产资源中心项目(SCKCZY2011-ZD005)

摘　　要：本文以超临界燃煤电厂排放的深部盐水层封存作为我国主要的CCS实施方案,从一体化的角度运用系统动力学方法对该方案进行建模与分析。模型综合考虑了CCS的减排效果、能耗和经济效益,理清了CSS系统要素之间的相互影响关系和反馈机制。仿真结果表明该方案可以减排电厂总排放量的80%以上,但减排成本高达66.81元/吨,同时消耗煤炭0.0905吨。在此基础上进一步分析了碳交易价格和技术进步对CCS的影响,结果表明:若无碳交易机制支持,CCS单位减排成本将增加52%。This paper designs a CCS implementation scheming for China which takes super-critical pulverized coal power plant as the emission source and takes deep saline formation as the storage option, and uses system dynamic methodology to modeling and analyzing the scheme. This model takes mitigation effect, extra energy consumption and economic benefits into account, and also figures out the influence of each element and feedback mechanism in CCS system. The simulation results showed that this scheme can reduce 80% of the CO2emitted by power plant, but the capital mitigation cost is high which has reached 66. 81 yuan and consumed extra O. 0905 tons of coal. Based on that, a further analysis is made to investigate the impact of carbon trading price and technology progress on CCS. The results showed that without the support of carbon trading system, the capital mitigation cost would increase by 52%.

关 键 词：碳捕捉与封存(CCS) 系统动力学 深部盐水层 学习曲线 评价 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]