我国国债适度规模的实证分析  

THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PROPER SCALE OF NATIONAL DEBT IN CHINA

作　　者：孙玉栋[1] 吴哲方[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2013年第10期50-60,共11页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AGL005);教育部"211工程"三期子项目"中国特色公共管理与公共政策学科平台建设"

摘　　要：近20年来,我国国债的发行规模呈现了快速增长的态势,为了避免过高债务规模的产生及其蕴含的潜在风险,将国债发行规模控制在一个适度的范围内至关重要。本文试图通过理论分析和模型证明对当前国债规模的适度性作出判断,从而对未来我国国债管理提出相关政策建议。通过对历年国债各相关指标的理论分析,以及时间指数模型、ARMA模式、KMV模型的实证分析,笔者认为我国当前的国债规模已经超出安全范围,并存在较大的偿债风险。为了扭转不良趋势,采取一系列有针对性的措施势在必行。积极预防未来国债发行和偿还可能引发的风险,不仅可以促使国债市场健康有序运行,更能为国民经济的发展提供保障。As a primary resource for raising financial fund, balancing financial budget and supplying fi- nancial deficit, public debt has provided a strong support for the overall national economy and macro-eco- nomic control. However, in the past two decades, the issuance of national debt has grown rapidly in order to avoid potential risk involved in this debt. It is crucial to keep the debt in a certain range. This paper tries to make judgment about the present scale of national debt through both theoretical and empirical ana- lyses. After discussing the past situation of the three indexes and the precise analysis through time func- tion model, ARMA model and KMV model, we believes that the current scale of national debt has excee- ded safe range and contains potential risks. In order to reverse the trend and promote the national econo- my, it is necessary to take certain measures because it will not only stimulate the national debt market but also protect the national economy.

关 键 词：国债依存度 国债负担率 国债偿债率 时间指数模型 ARMA模型 KMV 模型 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]