约束性CA在城乡建设用地指标空间化中的应用  

Spatial Allocation of Construction Land with Constrained Cellular Automata Model

作　　者：马世发[1] 艾彬[2] 欧金沛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学海洋学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第10期1245-1251,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830532)资助

摘　　要：元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)能通过简单的规则模拟复杂的地理时空演变过程。将城镇空间发展战略、限制性发展约束条件等规划思想耦合于CA模型中,可以提供城乡建设用地空间布局分析工具。以广州市为案例,根据中国当前土地利用总体规划编制规程,尝试利用构建的约束性CA模型确定规划期内城乡建设用地最可能的空间布局模式,并据此制定城镇扩展边界线(Urban Growing Boundary,UGB)和土地用途管制分区,提供土地利用总体规划中关于"六区一界"的编制方案。广州市的案例研究结果表明,耦合空间发展战略的约束性CA是一种非常有效的空间分析工具,可为土地利用规划提供决策参考。It has been proved that cellular automata （CA） model can simulate complex geographical process ef fectively only with simple conversion rules. According to the principle of traditional forecasting CA, a con strained CA model by combination of spatial development strategies was proposed in this article. In the model, the influence factors of land use evolution such as spatial indices, constrained conditions as well as planning policies were integrated to derive the layout rules of construction land. The proposed model will be used as an efficient tool for allocating urban construction land. Selecting Guangzhou city, a fast developing region in Pearl River Delta, as study area, the constrained CA model was further implemented and validated referring to current land use planning outline of China. It was shown that the most appropriate distribution of construction land can be efficiently achieved with the constrained CA. Urban Growing Boundary （UGB） and land use zon ing can be further delimited based on the simulation results during different planning periods, which shows higher similarity with the layout planning of the case study area, Guangzhou City. The simulation results can provide scientific information for land use planning, and the constrained CA coupled with the planning scheme is capable of assisting decision-makers to allocate the construction land.

关 键 词：元胞自动机(CA) 土地利用规划 土地利用分区 城镇扩展边界线(UGB) 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]