夏玉米气候适宜度对全球气候变暖的响应——以商丘地区为例  

Influence of Climate Change on Climate Suitability of Summer Maize in Central Plain of China: A Case Study of Shangqiu

作　　者：史本林[1] 朱新玉[1] 胡云川[1] 刘晓满[1] 

机构地区：[1]商丘师范学院,河南商丘476000

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第10期1277-1284,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41140019);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(13YJCZH283);河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(12A170005)资助

摘　　要：运用商丘地区8个农业气象观测站及气象试验站1971-2010年逐日日照时数、温度和降水量观测值，构建了玉米光照、温度、降水及综合气候适宜度计算模型，对1971～2010年玉米全生育期及各主要生育阶段的气候适宜度与综合气候适宜度动态变化进行分析。结果表明：玉米全生育期温度、光照、降水及综合气候适宜度平均值分别为0．507、0．587、0．545及0．541；玉米生育期内光照适宜度较好，降水适宜度次之，温度适宜度最差，温度是限制玉米生长发育的主要气候因子。近40a以来，温度适宜度以0．003/1Oa线性趋势下降，光照适宜度以0．049/10a线性趋势下降，降水适宜度以0．006/1Oa线性趋势下降。气候因子匹配效果较差，对玉米的生长不利。降水和温度是影响玉米播种及出苗的主要气候因子，播种一出苗期气候因子综合匹配效果较差。温度的明显升高及夏秋两季日照时数降低幅度较大，导致玉米出苗一拔节期对各气候因子的适宜性较差。玉米拔节一抽穗期降水和温度的适宜性较高，降水和温度的有效匹配有利于玉米的拔节及抽穗。抽穗一乳熟期温度、光照和降水组合效果趋好，有利于玉米干物质量的积累；乳熟一成熟期光照适宜性较强，温度和降水适宜性较差，综合气候适宜性变差。Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production. Climate variability adverse ly impacts crop production and imposes a major constraint on farming panning, mostly on how to enhance the yields of maize, across the word. Owing to the fundamental importance of food to human welfare, crop and livestock production, used the data of maize experimental field and meteorological data of eight agro-meteoro logical experiment stations and agro-meteorological observation stations in Shangqiu from 1991 to 2010, the models of climate suitability had been established. The dynamic variation of climate suitability in the whole growth period from 1971 to 2010 was analyzed. The results showed that the suitability degrees of temperature, sunshine, precipitation and integrated were 0.507, 0.587, 0.545 and 0.541 respectively during the whole growth period of maize. The sunshine suitability degree was the best, precipitation suitability degree taken the second place and the temperature suitability degree was the worst. It is indicated that temperature is the major limiting factor for maize growth and development. The temperature suitability degrees decreased by 0.003 ev ery ten years, sunshine suitability degree decreased by 0.049 every ten years and the precipitation suitability de grees decreased by 0.006 every ten years from 1971 to 2010. The weaken combination effect of temperature, sunshine and precipitation was unfavorable for the growth of maize. The precipitation and temperature were the main climatic factors affecting the sowing and emergence of maize. The precipitation, temperature and sun shine had poor combination effect in sowing to emergence period, which had the unfavorable influence on the growth of maize. Because of the temperature increasing and the sunshine hours decreasing, suitability of every climatic factor was weaker in the emergence to jointing period of maize. In jointing to tasseling period of maize, precipitation and temperature suitability degrees were well. It indicated that the eff

关 键 词：气候变暖 玉米 气候适宜性 黄淮地区 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]