基于Agent建模的恐怖袭击影响因素仿真分析  

On the factors leading to terror attacks based on the Agent simulation analysis approach

作　　者：孙多勇[1] 李文举[1] 付举磊[1] 李博[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2013年第5期259-264,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70973138)

摘　　要：运用系统学相关理论分析了恐怖组织生存、演化、发展的过程,重点考察了不同资源对恐怖活动的影响,以及恐怖组织的结构形态与环境的互动关系;然后,基于智能体建模和动态网络分析技术,构建了恐怖组织网络的动态仿真模型。结果表明,削弱恐怖组织网络从环境获取资源的能力或降低其核心成员激进化的速度可以有效遏制恐怖组织网络发动恐怖袭击的能力。最后,给出了多元化的反恐策略。This paper is to present its research results on how to use the simulation method based on the Agent analysis of the factors that have effect on the terrorist attacks. In proceeding with our study, we have given a brief introduction to the situation of terrorism for the time being. And, then, we would also like to make a research review of the terrorism by using a simulated method. Our study can actually be divided into four parts： （1） An analysis of the terrorist network done in accordance with a set of systematic theories; （2） Modeling the ter- rorist network with the agent method; （3） Simulating the terrorist net- work with a discussion of the likely disastrous consequences; （4） Searching for different tactics on how to organize anti-terrorist back- blows. First of all, based on the study of systematic anti-terrorist the- ory, we have made a detailed analysis of the survival situation, evo- lution and development of terrorist organizations, which is oriented on the effects of four factors on terrorist attacks. The problem involves mainly four factors： money, logistics, intrigues and religious beliefs. The first three factors are known as resource factors, but the fourth one, the belief factor can be called dynamic factor. Both the resource factors and belief factor may play important roles on the part of the terror attack organizers, but each of the factors has its own specific function which we shall analyze in the paper. Then, we would like to analyze the interrelationship between the superstructure of the terrorist organization and their surrounding environments. In this part, we would like to make a review of the evolutionary development of the terrorist organizations and terrorist activities, for it is a process from the hierarchical organization to a systematic network organization. Secondly, we would like to bring about a dynamic simulation model of terrorist network based on the agent modeling and dynamic network analysis （DNA）. In this model, we have defined four types of a- ge

关 键 词：安全管理工程 恐怖袭击 反恐 恐怖组织 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]