2013年1—3季度中国生猪市场分析及展望  

China's Pig Market in the 1st-3rd Quarter 2013 and Its Prospect

作　　者：陈艳丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《农业展望》2013年第10期19-23,共5页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：2012年9月—2013年8月,能繁母猪存栏量几乎连续1年均维持在5 000万头以上,生猪产能充足。2013年春节后国内猪价一路下滑,3个月下跌近三成,创2010年8月中旬以来最低水平。受政府收储等影响,猪价5—6月反弹。夏季持续高温天气、养殖户惜售等导致生猪供应量出现阶段性减少,全国猪价"淡季不淡",至中秋节,价格连续上涨回升三成。中秋节、国庆节期间,市场流通领域猪肉(鲜猪肉和政府投放的冷冻储备肉)供应充足,而需求反弹力度有限,猪市承压弱势波动。随着生猪饲养方式的不断转变和产业结构调整,生猪养殖规模化、标准化发展步伐逐步加快,生猪养殖已进入微利时代,猪周期具有延长趋势。随着节后生猪供应量减少以及需求旺季到来,如果没有重大疫情扰乱市场供应,至2014年春节前的数月,可能会出现连续震荡上涨,但总体稳定,不会出现大幅波动。From September 2012 to August 2013, the quantity of sow herds almost continuously maintained over 50 million, pig production capacity was sufficient. After 2013 Spring Festival, domestic pork price went down all the way and fell nearly 30% in 3 months, reached the lowest level since mid-August 2010. Under the effects of government purchasing and storage and other factors, pork price rebounded in May-Jun 2013. Supply of live pigs reduced in stages as a result of sustain high temperatures in summer and farmers holding tight, hog prices were not weak in slack season all over the country, until Mid-Autumn Festival, prices rose again 30% continuously. During Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, pork （frozen meat reserves, which were put by government, and fresh pork） supply was adequate for the market circulation field, while demand rebounded not excessively, and market fluctuated weakly under pressure. With the changing of pig feeding mode and adjustment of industrial structure, the pace of pig farming production scale and standardization was accelerated gradually, pig farming entered an age with little benefit, and pig cycle took on lengthening trend. With the decreasing postganglionic supply of live pigs and the coming of peak demand season, the market will rise with vibrating continuously before 2014 Spring Festival, but stabilize as a whole, and not fluctuate significantly, if there are no major outbreaks disrupting the market supply.

关 键 词：生猪市场 猪粮比价 能繁母猪存栏 猪肉价格 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]