基于金融稳定的货币政策框架:理论与实证分析  

Monetary Policy Framework Based on Financial Stability: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：马勇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心 [2]中国人民大学国际货币研究所

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2013年第11期4-15,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"完善金融宏观调控体系研究"(12&ZD089);国家自然科学基金项目"宏观审慎政策体系与实施方案研究"(71150003);北京市教育委员会共建项目"中国货币国际化战略研究"资助

摘　　要：本文将金融稳定因素纳入货币政策框架,对基于稳定的货币政策规则进行了系统的理论和实证分析。本文的研究表明,相比传统仅仅盯住产出和通胀缺口的利率规则,纳入金融稳定考虑后的货币政策需要一个相对更高的利率规则值来抑制金融体系的过度风险承担。实证分析也发现,危机前的货币政策利率通常存在着系统性低估,这种低估主要源于紧盯价格稳定的货币政策忽略了低利率政策对系统性风险的诱导作用。本文结论对货币政策框架的基本启示是:中央银行的货币政策取向会影响宏观经济大环境和市场主体(尤其是金融机构)的风险承担倾向,因而有着确切的金融稳定内涵,适宜的货币政策需要充分考虑这种内涵,并对金融体系的风险承担做出必要的反应。By incorporating the factor of financial stability into monetary policy framework, this paper studies the stability based monetary policy rules based on both theoretical and empirical analysis. Our study shows that, compared with the traditional interest rate rules based on output and inflation gap, the stability based monetary policy rules, which also take financial stability costs into consideration, usually require a relatively higher interest rate to suppress the excessive risk taking behaviors within the financial system. The empirical analysis supports this theory by showing that most countries tend to have a systemic underestimation of their policy interest rates before the crisis, which is mainly because the traditional monetary policy rules simply ignore the systemic risk induced by low interest rate policy. The conclusion of this paper on monetary policy framework is that the central bank＇s monetary policy will affect the macroeconomic environment and market participants＂ （especially financial institutions, ） risk-taking tendency, thus having a definite connotation for maintaining financial stability. An appropriate monetary policy framework needs to take full account of this connotation, and makes necessary responses to the risk-taking behaviors within the financial system.

关 键 词：金融稳定 货币政策框架 利率规则 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]