信贷热潮对银行脆弱性的影响——基于中国的理论与实证研究  

Impacts of Credit Booms on Bank Fragility——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on China

作　　者：徐璐[1] 钱雪松[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学金融研究院 [2]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2013年第11期84-96,共13页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"基于融资歧视和内部人控制的企业内外部资本配置研究"(71003035);华中科技大学自主创新研究基金一般项目"融资歧视和企业资本配置研究"(2010AW024)的资助

摘　　要：银行脆弱性的测度及其影响因素一直是理论界和实务界关注的重要问题。在美国次贷危机爆发、中国银行业信贷猛增的背景下,人们对中国商业银行体系的脆弱性及其影响因素更加关注。本文通过理论模型提出了信贷热潮会增加银行体系脆弱性的假说。同时,基于1990-2011年中国相关数据构造了银行脆弱性指标并界定了信贷热潮,实证考察了信贷热潮因素对中国银行脆弱性的影响。分析表明,信贷热潮不仅自身会降低银行体系稳健性,而且倾向于加大金融体系结构性特征对银行脆弱性的负面影响。本文的政策含义是,只有避免出现较长持续期的信贷热潮,同时优化金融体系结构,大力发展直接融资、降低银行业集中度,才能有效提高中国银行体系的稳健性。The measurement of bank fragility and its influencing factors has been the focus of recent studies. By establishing theoretical models and conducting empirical analyses, this paper studies the impact of credit booms on the probability of bank fragility. Analyses show that credit booms will not only reduce the stability of bank system themselves, but also tend to increase the financial structural factors＂ influence on bank fragility. The policy implications of this paper are that, only by avoiding long-time credit booms, optimizing the structure of the financial system with more direct financing as well as encouraging banking competition, can we improve the stability of our banking system.

关 键 词：银行脆弱性 信贷热潮 金融体系结构 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]