“限购令”是抑制房价上涨的有效政策工具吗?①——基于70个大中城市的实证研究  

Is House Purchase Limit an Effective Policy to Control Housing Price?

作　　者：张德荣[1] 郑晓婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2013年第11期56-72,共17页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(12YJA790185);国家社会科学基金项目(11CJL063)的资助

摘　　要：2010年以来我国政府实施的五次房地产宏观调控中,以数量管制性质的"限购令"最为严苛。本文按照户籍和限购地域两个标准对限购政策了进行细分,在倍差法的研究框架内,通过动态面板模型CMM估计来评估限购政策对抑制住宅价格上涨的效果。实证研究发现,对非户籍购房人实施限购的政策效果最为明显。限购范围影响政策效果,仅在市区范围内限购难以起到抑制房价上涨的作用。通过对限购政策效果的评估,本文认为,投资(投机)性需求是推动我国房价上升的主要动力,我国房地产泡沫的根源在于粗放的经济增长方式,以货币超发带动经济增长的发展模式是房地产泡沫的根源所在,也是我国房地产市场调控的难度所在。As a quantity administration policy, will the House Purchase Limit influ- ence the increasingly high house price？ We firstly classify the limit by household regis- tered and the area restricted to buy, and then use GMM estimation of a dynamic panel data model to analyze the effects of the policy on the high-rising house price under the framework of difference in differences. The findings are as follows. The most obvious effect is on people with no household registered. The area restriction also has influence on the house price and it is difficult to reduce the high-rising house price provided that the restriction is carried out only in the main business area of the city. We have dis- covered that the investment （speculation） demand is the essential factor influencing housing price. In order to solve the problem of bubbles in the house market, we suppose to deal with the problems beyond the house market. It is difficult to control the house market without reducing the excess liquidity which is the main motivation of the economic growth since the reform period.

关 键 词：限购政策 房地产调控 倍差法 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]