中国旅游服务出口地理集中度与出口不稳定性关系研究  

Geographic Concentration and China's Tourism Service Export Instability

作　　者：许培源[1] 陈蓉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,中国福建泉州362021

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第10期168-173,共6页Economic Geography

基　　金：华侨大学人文社会科学高水平论著资助专项计划

摘　　要：以出口地理集中度和出口不稳定性指数为研究变量,采用多地区方差分解模型,实证分析了中国旅游服务出口地理集中度与出口不稳定性的关系。结果显示:中国旅游服务出口主要集中于港澳台地区,而出口的波动却主要来自其它国家和地区;剔除港澳台地区后,旅游服务出口集中于韩国、俄罗斯、泰国、法国等加剧了出口波动,而拓展其它地区尤其是马来西亚、菲律宾、蒙古、印尼、印度等不仅可以扩大旅游服务规模,而且可以降低总体的出口不稳定性。因此,主动的目标式的旅游市场拓展战略是我国旅游业稳定发展的必然选择。Taking geographic concentration index and export diversification index as research variables, using a multiple-region variance decomposition approach, this paper makes a positive study on causal and fluctuant relations between geographic concentration and export instability of China＇ s tourism service. The results indicate that, China＇ s tourism service export concentrates on Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan（HMT）, while most of its export instability caused by other countries/areas; And, besides HMT, tourism service concentration on South Korea, Russia, Thailand and France worse exports instability, while develop other markets, especially Malaysia, Philippines, Mongolia, Indonesia and India, is helpful for both volume and stability. Thus means that an initiative-target marketing strategy is indispensable for the development of China＇s tourism industry.

关 键 词：旅游服务出口 地理集中度 出口不稳定性 方差分解模型 

分 类 号：F590.7[经济管理—旅游管理]