基于变参数模型的城乡居民收入刺激机制研究——以山东省为例  

Empirical Research on Stimulation Mechanism of Urban-rural Income Based on Time-Varying Parameter Model——A Case Study on Shandong Province

作　　者：薛瑞[1] 张小斐[1] 田金方[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学统计学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2013年第11期34-37,44,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(12BJL011;10CTJ003);山东统计科研课题(KT13099)

摘　　要：文章根据山东省1978-2011年城乡居民收入、地区生产总值以及居民消费数据,采用变参数模型,分析经济增长和居民消费对城镇与农村居民收入的横向贡献度及其纵向贡献度差异。检验发现,居民消费对城镇与农村居民收入的刺激作用要更强,且其对农村居民收入的刺激强度较之城镇居民收入要更大,这对山东省制定提高居民收入政策具有积极的借鉴作用。Based on the data of 1978~2011 year about urban-rural income, gross regional productivity and residential con-sumption of Shandong province,this article studies the lateral and longitudinal contribution difference of economic growth and residential consumption to urban-rural income based on time-varying model. The empirical analysis indicates that compared with economic growth, greater positive contributions do the residential consumption exert to the residential income. In addi-tion,residential consumption contributes more to the rural income than to the urban income. The conclusion holds a good refer-ence for the government when they make the policy of improvement on residential income.

关 键 词：城乡居民收入 刺激机制 变参数模型 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F126