房地产调控政策真的有效吗?——调控政策对预期与房价关系的调节效应研究  

Are the Real Estate Macro-Control Policies Really Effective?——Moderating Effect of Macro-Control Policies on Relationship of Expectations and Price

作　　者：贾生华[1] 李航[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2013年第11期82-87,共6页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"整顿和规范房地产市场秩序的制度设计;政策分析和路径选择"(01AZD016)

摘　　要：为防止房地产市场的过度泡沫化,国家出台了一系列房地产调控政策。但这些调控政策能否有效降低房价并抑制房地产泡沫呢?以往房地产泡沫的研究表明,投资者预期对房地产价格波动和房地产泡沫的影响极为重要。经典的噪声交易模型也指出,噪声交易者预期是房地产价格波动和房地产泡沫形成的重要因素。在系统回顾文献的基础上,文章分析了噪声交易者预期对于房地产价格泡沫的影响,并剖析了房地产调控政策对噪声预期和房价关系的调节作用,从而构建了相应的调节作用模型。在此基础上,使用35个大中城市2002-2011年的实际数据进行了调节作用模型的实证检验。实证结果显示,近年来国家出台的房地产调控政策在抑制房地产价格异常波动和房地产泡沫问题上收效甚微。The real estate industry has developed quickly in recent years,and the government has implemented a series of pol-icies to prevent the price of real estate rising too fast. But are the real estate macro-control policies really effective？ Researching on real estate bubbles has pointed out that the noise traders’ expectation is a key factor for the recent real estate bubbles. This paper, based on the systematic literature review, analyzes the moderation effect of Macro-Control Policies on relationship of expectations and price, and then the moderation effect model is constructed. Meanwhile, it verifies the analysis of the model with the data of 35 cities from 2002 to 2011. Finally,this paper points out some conclusions and gives some advices to improve the effect of the government policy.

关 键 词：调控政策 噪声交易者预期 房地产泡沫 调节效应 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]