中国失业率影响因素的再认识:一个计量实证研究  

Re-examining Factors Influencing Chinas Unemployment Rate: an Econometric Empirical Approach

作　　者：任栋[1] 李萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学统计学院,四川成都611130 [2]西南财经大学经济学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2013年第5期96-103,共8页Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"统计指数理论的创新研究"(11BTJ010)

摘　　要：针对我国学术界对社会主义市场经济下失业率影响因素的各种不同认识,采用1990—2010年我国有关宏观经济指标的数据和计量经济模型的方法进行实证研究,重新审视影响我国失业率的诸因素,对资本有机构成提高、全国适龄劳动人口数量增大、特别是农民工进城、经济增长率对我国失业率水平的影响程度和作用效果有新的认识。我们认为,资本有机构成提高仍然是影响我国失业率水平提高的首要因素、适龄劳动人口数量次之,而"农民工进城"不仅没有增大我国的城镇登记失业率,反而起到了降低我国城镇失业率水平的效果,经济增长率对失业率的影响并不显著。理解和把握我国社会主义市场经济条件下影响失业率水平变化的各种因素,可以为进一步的研究、制定并实施有效的对策措施、探寻失业率的最优适度目标控制区间提供重要的线索和路径。In the academic circles of China there have been different understandings of factors influencing unemployment in the socialist market economy system. This paper, using data of China＇s macroeconomic indicators from 1990 to 2010 and the econometric model of empirical study, re-examines the factors affecting China＇s unemployment rate, disclosing the author＇s new interpretations of the impact of the organic composition of capital, the increase of working age population, migrant workers moving into the city and the economic growth rate on China＇s unemployment rate. It points out that increase in the organic composition of capital remains the primary factor causing unemployment, followed by the growing working-age population. The ＂migrant workers＂ rushing into the city, instead of increasing China＇s registered urban unemployment rate, actually have helped reduce the unemployment rate in China. It is also found that economic growth rate has no significant effect on the unemployment rate. A proper understanding of the effect of these variables on unemployment in China contributes to further research in this field, and the adoption of effective measures to keep the unemployment rate in control.

关 键 词：资本有机构成 城镇登记失业率 农民工人数 适龄劳动人口数 

分 类 号：F014.2[经济管理—政治经济学]