玉米旱灾气象指数保险的费率厘定研究——以甘肃省西峰区为例  

Research on Ratemaking for Maize Drought Index Insurance——A Case in Xifeng District of Gansu Province

作　　者：王振军[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州商学院财税与公共管理学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《保险研究》2013年第10期42-47,共6页Insurance Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目"陇东黄土高原区干旱指数农业保险的应用研究(11XJC790010);兰州商学院重大项目"小规模农户购买农业保险的影响因素研究"(LZ201105)

摘　　要：该文以甘肃省西峰区为例，依据该区1981年～2012年期间历年的玉米实际单产数据，采用直线滑动平均法建立趋势拟合方程，应用Matlab7．0统计分析软件估算了该区1981年～2012年期间的玉米趋势单产产量，并根据实际单产产量和趋势单产产量分离出旱灾单产产量。在此基础上，依据不同降水量指数下玉米实际单产产量相对趋势单产产量的减产率，设计出玉米旱灾气象指数保险的理赔指数，并根据不同程度干旱灾害的灾损率和与之对应的发生频率厘定出玉米旱灾保险的总投保费率。试图为当地政府完善玉米旱灾保险提供理论依据和实证分析的建议，为开展其他农作物保险提出可供借鉴的途径。Taking Xifeng district of Gansu province as an example, and based on its maize yields per unit area from1981 to 2012 ,this paper used the linear moving average method to establish the trend fitting equation, and ap- pliedMatlabT. 0 statistical analysis software to estimate the maize trend yiel dper unit area from1981 to 2012. Then it isolated the drought yield per unit area from actual yield per unit area and trend yield per unit area. On this ba- sis, according to the yield reduction rate between the actual maize yield and the maize trend yield under different rainfall index, it designed indemnity indices of maize drought index insurance. And in accordance with varying de- grees of drought disaster loss rates and the corresponding occurrence frequencies, the paper arrived at the gross pre- mium rates for maize drought index insurance. It intended to provide local governments witha theoretical basis and empirical analysis for improving onmaize drought insurance, and offer a useful reference for carrying out other types of crop insurance.

关 键 词：玉米旱灾气象指数保险 理赔指数 保险费率 甘肃省西峰区 

分 类 号：F840.66[经济管理—保险]