桂东北5—8月持续性暴雨过程分析与预报  

Analysis and forecast on sustained rainstorm processes from May to August in northeast Guangxi

作　　者：王艳兰[1] 刘国忠[2] 唐桥义[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区桂林市气象局,桂林541001 [2]广西壮族自治区百色市气象局,百色533000

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2013年第3期235-241,共7页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40865001);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2012-043);广西区气象局重点科研项目(桂气科200904);华南区域气象中心科技攻关项目(GRMC2012M08)

摘　　要：利用2000---2009年常规气象观测资料以及欧洲中期天气预报中心（EuropeanCenterforMedium—rangeWeatherForecast，简称ECMWF）全球模式2．5°×2．5°初始场客观分析资料，采取统计分类、天气气候分析及“配料法”等，对桂东北5—8月持续性暴雨过程进行分析与预报总结。结果表明：桂东北持续性暴雨主要发生在5月下旬至6月下旬，持续时间为2～4d，大多数持续2d；基于天气系统配置，桂东北持续性暴雨可分为4大类6小类。用天气学分型并结合数值产品、物理量配料建立的桂东北持续性暴雨客观预报工具，可为该地区持续性暴雨预报提供客观参考依据。Using conventional observation data from 2000 to 2009 and ECMWF global objective analysis of initial field with resolution 2.5°×2.5°, the sustained rainstorm （SR） processes from May to August in northeast Guangxi have been analyzed and its prediction skill has been evaluated, with statistical classification method, synoptic and climatological analysis and ingredients based method, etc. The results indi- cate that SRs in northeast Guangxi mainly occur from late May to late June, whose duration is from 2 to 4 days, and most of them last for 2 days. The SRs in this area can be classified into four primaly categories and six sub-categories according to the configuration of weather sys- tems. An objective system for automatic forecasting sustained rainstorm established by combining information on synoptic pattern, numerical forecast products and physical quantity ingredients can provide objective references for SR forecast in northeast Guangxi.

关 键 词：持续性暴雨 天气学分型 客观预报工具 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]